Golden Globes, 2017

As per tradition, here are my predictions for the Golden Globes for 2016's pictures.

And the nominees are:

Prediction Results:  10/14 = 71% / 11/14 = 79% (if including dark horses)

Best Motion Picture (Drama)
'Hacksaw Ridge'
'Hell or High Water'
'Manchester by the Sea'
'Moonlight' - WINNER!

Will Win:  'Moonlight'
Dark Horse:  'Manchester by the Sea'

Satisfying win because it is a win that means more than just Best Picture.  It will surely be in the thick of the Oscar race, and looks like it has the edge over ‘Manchester by the Sea’.  Though it might just proved to be too difficult to overcome the ‘La La Land’ juggernaut.  

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
'20th Century Women'
'Florence Foster Jenkins'
'La La Land' - WINNER!
'Sing Street'

Will Win:  'La La Land'
Dark Horse:  'Florence Foster Jenkins'

Would have been an absolute shocker if any other film got it, after its singular momentum of the night.

Best Director
Damien Chazelle / 'La La Land' - WINNER!
Tom Ford / 'Nocturnal Animals'
Mel Gibson / 'Hacksaw Ridge'
Barry Jenkins / 'Moonlight'
Kenneth Lonergan / 'Manchester by the Sea'

Will Win:  Damien Chazelle
Dark Horse:  Barry Jenkins

Good win for a young, promising lad, in what is a three-horse race (see Best Screenplay).  If the ‘La La Land’ traction continues to sustain all the way up to the Oscars, Chazelle could bag the same category again.

Best Leading Actor (Drama)
Casey Affleck / 'Manchester by the Sea' - WINNER!
Joel Edgerton / 'Loving'
Andrew Garfield / 'Hacksaw Ridge'
Viggo Mortensen / 'Captain Fantastic'
Denzel Washington / 'Fences'

Will Win:  Casey Affleck
Dark Horse:  Denzel Washington 

One of the year’s most-raved performances, now getting the deserving award.  He will be the one to beat in the Oscars race.  But don’t discount Denzel Washington (‘Fences’).

Best Leading Actress (Drama)
Amy Adams / 'Arrival'
Jessica Chastain / 'Miss Sloane'
Ruth Negga / 'Loving'
Natalie Portman / 'Jackie'
Isabelle Huppert / 'Elle' - WINNER!

Will Win:  Natalie Portman
Dark Horse:  Isabelle Huppert

A surprise, but could have seen it coming with the Best Foreign Language Feature win for ‘Elle’.  Her performance has been in the spotlight for months now, and I think she might have the momentum to pull off an Oscar nomination.  And if so, will be an exciting three-horse race between her, Emma Stone (‘La La Land’) and Natalie Portman (‘Jackie’)

Best Leading Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Colin Farrell / 'The Lobster'
Ryan Gosling / 'La La Land' - WINNER!
Hugh Grant / 'Florence Foster Jenkins'
Jonah Hill / 'War Dogs'
Ryan Reynolds / 'Deadpool'

Will Win:  Ryan Gosling
Dark Horse:  Colin Farrell

A firm favourite, though it wasn’t a truly fantastic performance--Emma Stone set the bar too high, but certainly no one will be up in arms over this win.  It will be interesting to see if Gosling will even land an Oscar nomination with a number of dramatic performances higher up in queue.

Best Leading Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Annette Bening / '20th Century Women'
Lily Collins / 'Rules Don't Apply'
Hailee Steinfeld / 'The Edge of Seventeen'
Emma Stone / 'La La Land' - WINNER!
Meryl Streep / 'Florence Foster Jenkins'

Will Win:  Emma Stone
Dark Horse:  Annette Bening

Great to see her win -- certainly one of the best and purely enjoyable performances of the year.  Surely a lock for an Oscar nomination, and will certainly battle Natalie Portman till the last lap.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali / 'Moonlight'
Jeff Bridges / 'Hell or High Water'
Simon Helberg / 'Florence Foster Jenkins'
Dev Patel / 'Lion'
Aaron Taylor-Johnson / 'Nocturnal Animals' - WINNER!

Will Win:  Mahershala Ali
Dark Horse:  Jeff Bridges

Certainly a good performance worth a nomination, but at the expense of strong frontrunner Mahershala Ali (‘Moonlight’) makes this a shocker in context.  Ali may find his one firm hand on the Oscar slipping by a few fingers. 

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis / 'Fences' - WINNER!
Naomie Harris / 'Moonlight'
Nicole Kidman / 'Lion'
Octavia Spencer / 'Hidden Figures'
Michelle Williams / 'Manchester by the Sea'

Will Win:  Viola Davis
Dark Horse:  Michelle Williams

Expected win, though I suspect it was a close fight with Michelle Williams (‘Manchester by the Sea’).  Expect the race to be even closer at the Oscars, with neither having won before.  And they are two fine actresses whose time has come.

Best Screenplay
'Hell or High Water' / Taylor Sheridan
'La La Land' / Damien Chazelle - WINNER!
'Manchester by the Sea' / Kenneth Lonergan
'Moonlight' / Barry Jenkins
'Nocturnal Animals' / Tom Ford

Will Win:  'Manchester by the Sea'
Dark Horse:  'Moonlight'

Didn’t predict this correctly, but certainly not an upset.  It was a three-horse race between ‘La La Land’, ‘Moonlight’ and ‘Manchester by the Sea’.  Will be interesting to see how the Oscars will play out with both Original and Adapted Screenplay categories.

Best Original Score
'Arrival' / Johann Johannsson
'Hidden Figures' / Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams & Benjamin Wallfisch
'La La Land' / Justin Hurwitz - WINNER!
'Lion' / Dustin O'Halloran & Volker Bertelmann
'Moonlight' / Nicholas Britell

Will Win:  'La La Land'
Dark Horse:  'Arrival'

My favourite score of the year is Johann Johannsson’s work for ‘Arrival’, but this is no surprise, and deserves its win.  Will win the Oscar too.

Best Original Song
"Gold" / 'Gold'
"City of Stars" / 'La La Land' - WINNER!
"How Far I'll Go" / 'Moana'
"Faith" / 'Sing'
"Can't Stop the Feeling" / 'Trolls'

Will Win:  "City of Stars"
Dark Horse:  "How Far I'll Go"

Not a surprise too, and likely to win the Oscar.  If two songs from ‘La La Land’ were to be nominated for the Oscars, a split vote might cause another song from another movie to spring an upset, probably the theme song from ‘Moana’.

Best Animated Feature
'Kubo and the Two Strings'
'My Life as a Zucchini'
'Zootopia' - WINNER!

Will Win:  'Zootopia'
Dark Horse:  'Kubo and the Two Strings'

Would have loved for ‘Kubo and the Two Strings’ to spring a minor surprise.  With this win, ‘Zootopia’ can safely put one hand on the Oscar.  But don’t discount a late upswing of support for ‘Kubo’ or ‘Moana’.

Best Foreign Language Feature
'Divines' / France
'Elle' / France - WINNER!
'Neruda' / Chile
'The Salesman' / Iran
'Toni Erdmann' / Germany

Will Win:  'Toni Erdmann'
Dark Horse:  'The Salesman'

Did not expect this, was rooting for Maren Ade to get it for ‘Toni Erdmann’.  Looks like her film isn’t quite the sure lock for the Oscar now.


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