OSCARS 2011: Analysis & Prediction (The Major Players)
[Film still from The Artist]
BEST PICTURE
The term "Best Picture" has two meanings. One, it most commonly refers to the "Best Film of the Year", which in itself could mean either the most critically-acclaimed or the most popular film of the year. Two, it could also refer to the "Best Production of the Year", meaning that the film has great production values, stemming from an amalgamation of numerous parts ranging from the technical (e.g. cinematography, special visual effects) to the artistic (e.g. art direction, costume design), and to the logistical (e.g. casting, shooting locations).
This most prestigious category ideally rewards the nominee that shows itself to be the "Best Film of the Year", as well as the "Best Production of the Year", though in reality, it does not occur as frequently as we like.
[Film still from Hugo]
The nominees:
[Film still from The Help]
Analysis: The Descendants was the frontrunner in this category, but the buzz for it has since petered off. The Help has an outside chance of winning if the 1000+ actors voters have their way. But I feel this is a two-horse race between The Artist and Hugo, with the former having the clear advantage.
It will be a big statement of intent if the Academy goes for The Artist on Oscar night, shattering the myth that a black-and-white silent film about the decline of a silent film star can never win a Best Picture Award in this modern age.
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BEST DIRECTOR
The director is the most important person in the entire filmmaking process. A number of great directors are also screenwriters. They oversee the creative process from pre-production to production to post-production. Great directors have their own unique vision, visual style, and have themes that recur in their works, in what is now known as "The Auteur Theory". They are also masters in getting the best out of his or her cast and crew.
[Image of Martin Scorsese, director of Hugo]
The nominees:
[Image of Michel Hazanavicius, director of The Artist]
Analysis: Woody Allen and Alexander Payne will most likely be rewarded for their outstanding screenplays, rather than their directing. This leaves us with Terrence Malick, Martin Scorsese, and Michel Hazanavicius. Malick is a surprise nomination in this category, though in an ideal scenario, he should be rewarded for his bold vision of a philosophical and meditative film, something of an anomaly in today's cinema.
Scorsese is the dark horse for his successful foray into 3-D filmmaking, and I feel that his solitary Oscar win for The Departed is still not enough recognition for this living legend. Another Best Director Oscar win will go a long way in addressing this fact. That being said, I think that Hazanavicius should be crowned the winner for the sole reason that he has dared to make a silent black-and-white film, more than 80 years after it had gone out of fashion. It is now or never for the Academy to award this audacious and talented director.
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BEST LEADING ACTOR
[Image of George Clooney in The Descendants]
The nominees:
[Image of Brad Pitt in Moneyball]
Analysis: A close two-horse race between Jean Dujardin and George Clooney is expected. Dujardin deserves the award for his outstanding performance, though Clooney might pip him to the prize if the Academy decides to reward one of their own. Brad Pitt, and Gary Oldman have a small outside chance of winning because they have not won before, especially the latter who has been undervalued by the Academy in the past. If Bichir wins, it would be one of the greatest Oscar upsets of all-time.
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BEST LEADING ACTRESS
[Image of Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn]
The nominees:
[Image of Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady]
Analysis: Like the Best Leading Actor category, this is a close two-horse race between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. Streep has not won in nearly thirty years, so the Academy may decide to reward her for her remarkable consistency over the decades. Viola Davis is the favorite with the Screen Actors Guild voters, who make up the bulk of the Academy, so she has the slight edge over Streep.
Glenn Close has been previously nominated five times, but sadly it is unlikely she will win on her sixth attempt. Michelle Williams is unlucky to be with Streep and Davis this year as her performance as Marilyn Monroe warrants an Oscar. As for Rooney Mara, if she wins, it will also be one of the greatest upsets in Oscar history.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
[Image of Christopher Plummer in Beginners]
The nominees:
[Image of Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close]
Analysis: One of the easiest categories to predict, the Best Supporting Actor Oscar will go to Christopher Plummer. Jonah Hill and Kenneth Branagh have never been in contention, while Nick Nolte and Max von Sydow are the best bets for an upset. The latter, like Plummer, is of the same age (82), and has only been nominated once before. But it is their body of work over the last half-century that has left a lasting legacy, and the Academy would want to reward either of them. But they are surely going to reward one of their own...
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
[Image of Bérénice Bejo in The Artist]
The nominees:
[Image of Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer (right) in The Help]
Analysis: Despite Jessia Chastain being nominated in the same category for the same film, it is highly unlikely the votes will be split between her and Octavia Spencer, who we believe has one hand on the trophy already. The dark horse is Bérénice Bejo, who might nick it because of the tremendous support for The Artist, but the upset is unlikely. Janet McTeer, and Melissa McCarthy will be posing little threat to Spencer.
BEST PICTURE
The term "Best Picture" has two meanings. One, it most commonly refers to the "Best Film of the Year", which in itself could mean either the most critically-acclaimed or the most popular film of the year. Two, it could also refer to the "Best Production of the Year", meaning that the film has great production values, stemming from an amalgamation of numerous parts ranging from the technical (e.g. cinematography, special visual effects) to the artistic (e.g. art direction, costume design), and to the logistical (e.g. casting, shooting locations).
This most prestigious category ideally rewards the nominee that shows itself to be the "Best Film of the Year", as well as the "Best Production of the Year", though in reality, it does not occur as frequently as we like.
[Film still from Hugo]
The nominees:
- THE ARTIST - Thomas Langmann
- THE DESCENDANTS - Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, & Jim Taylor
- EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE - Scott Rudin
- THE HELP - Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, & Michael Barnathan
- HUGO - Graham King, & Martin Scorsese
- MIDNIGHT IN PARIS - Letty Aronson, & Stephen Tenenbaum
- MONEYBALL - Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, & Brad Pitt
- THE TREE OF LIFE - Sarah Green, Grant Hill, Dede Gardner, & Bill Pohlad
- WAR HORSE - Steven Spielberg, & Kathleen Kennedy
The Academy will pick... | The Artist |
The Dark Horse is... | Hugo |
My vote will go to... | The Artist |
[Film still from The Help]
Analysis: The Descendants was the frontrunner in this category, but the buzz for it has since petered off. The Help has an outside chance of winning if the 1000+ actors voters have their way. But I feel this is a two-horse race between The Artist and Hugo, with the former having the clear advantage.
It will be a big statement of intent if the Academy goes for The Artist on Oscar night, shattering the myth that a black-and-white silent film about the decline of a silent film star can never win a Best Picture Award in this modern age.
---
BEST DIRECTOR
The director is the most important person in the entire filmmaking process. A number of great directors are also screenwriters. They oversee the creative process from pre-production to production to post-production. Great directors have their own unique vision, visual style, and have themes that recur in their works, in what is now known as "The Auteur Theory". They are also masters in getting the best out of his or her cast and crew.
[Image of Martin Scorsese, director of Hugo]
The nominees:
- MIDNIGHT IN PARIS - Woody Allen
- THE ARTIST - Michel Hazanavicius
- THE TREE OF LIFE - Terrence Malick
- THE DESCENDANTS - Alexander Payne
- HUGO - Martin Scorsese
The Academy will pick... | Michel Hazanavicius |
The Dark Horse is... | Martin Scorsese |
My vote will go to... | Michel Hazanavicius |
[Image of Michel Hazanavicius, director of The Artist]
Analysis: Woody Allen and Alexander Payne will most likely be rewarded for their outstanding screenplays, rather than their directing. This leaves us with Terrence Malick, Martin Scorsese, and Michel Hazanavicius. Malick is a surprise nomination in this category, though in an ideal scenario, he should be rewarded for his bold vision of a philosophical and meditative film, something of an anomaly in today's cinema.
Scorsese is the dark horse for his successful foray into 3-D filmmaking, and I feel that his solitary Oscar win for The Departed is still not enough recognition for this living legend. Another Best Director Oscar win will go a long way in addressing this fact. That being said, I think that Hazanavicius should be crowned the winner for the sole reason that he has dared to make a silent black-and-white film, more than 80 years after it had gone out of fashion. It is now or never for the Academy to award this audacious and talented director.
---
BEST LEADING ACTOR
[Image of George Clooney in The Descendants]
The nominees:
- A BETTER LIFE - Demián Bichir
- THE DESCENDANTS - George Clooney
- THE ARTIST - Jean Dujardin
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY - Gary Oldman
- MONEYBALL - Brad Pitt
The Academy will pick... | Jean Dujardin |
The Dark Horse is... | George Clooney |
My vote will go to... | Jean Dujardin |
[Image of Brad Pitt in Moneyball]
Analysis: A close two-horse race between Jean Dujardin and George Clooney is expected. Dujardin deserves the award for his outstanding performance, though Clooney might pip him to the prize if the Academy decides to reward one of their own. Brad Pitt, and Gary Oldman have a small outside chance of winning because they have not won before, especially the latter who has been undervalued by the Academy in the past. If Bichir wins, it would be one of the greatest Oscar upsets of all-time.
---
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
[Image of Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn]
The nominees:
- ALBERT NOBBS - Glenn Close
- THE HELP - Viola Davis
- THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO - Rooney Mara
- THE IRON LADY - Meryl Streep
- MY WEEK WITH MARILYN - Michelle Williams
The Academy will pick... | Viola Davis |
The Dark Horse is... | Meryl Streep |
My vote will go to... | Michelle Williams |
[Image of Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady]
Analysis: Like the Best Leading Actor category, this is a close two-horse race between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis. Streep has not won in nearly thirty years, so the Academy may decide to reward her for her remarkable consistency over the decades. Viola Davis is the favorite with the Screen Actors Guild voters, who make up the bulk of the Academy, so she has the slight edge over Streep.
Glenn Close has been previously nominated five times, but sadly it is unlikely she will win on her sixth attempt. Michelle Williams is unlucky to be with Streep and Davis this year as her performance as Marilyn Monroe warrants an Oscar. As for Rooney Mara, if she wins, it will also be one of the greatest upsets in Oscar history.
---
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
[Image of Christopher Plummer in Beginners]
The nominees:
- MY WEEK WITH MARILYN - Kenneth Branagh
- MONEYBALL - Jonah Hill
- WARRIOR - Nick Nolte
- BEGINNERS - Christopher Plummer
- EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE - Max von Sydow
The Academy will pick... | Christopher Plummer |
The Dark Horse is... | Max von Sydow |
My vote will go to | Christopher Plummer |
[Image of Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close]
Analysis: One of the easiest categories to predict, the Best Supporting Actor Oscar will go to Christopher Plummer. Jonah Hill and Kenneth Branagh have never been in contention, while Nick Nolte and Max von Sydow are the best bets for an upset. The latter, like Plummer, is of the same age (82), and has only been nominated once before. But it is their body of work over the last half-century that has left a lasting legacy, and the Academy would want to reward either of them. But they are surely going to reward one of their own...
---
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
[Image of Bérénice Bejo in The Artist]
The nominees:
- THE ARTIST - Bérénice Bejo
- THE HELP - Jessica Chastain
- BRIDESMAIDS - Melissa McCarthy
- ALBERT NOBBS - Janet McTeer
- THE HELP - Octavia Spencer
The Academy will pick... | Octavia Spencer |
The Dark Horse is... | Bérénice Bejo |
My vote will go to... | Octavia Spencer |
[Image of Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer (right) in The Help]
Analysis: Despite Jessia Chastain being nominated in the same category for the same film, it is highly unlikely the votes will be split between her and Octavia Spencer, who we believe has one hand on the trophy already. The dark horse is Bérénice Bejo, who might nick it because of the tremendous support for The Artist, but the upset is unlikely. Janet McTeer, and Melissa McCarthy will be posing little threat to Spencer.
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